An AI solution to an 80‑year‑old problem has shocked mathematicians

A representation of one version of the new best arrangement of points on a plane with pairs separated by a unit distance. Álvaro Lozano-Robledo

Last week, OpenAI shocked the mathematical community by revealing that one of its internal artificial intelligence (AI) models had found a counterexample to a famous conjecture made by legendary Hungarian mathematician Paul Erdős in 1946.

The planar unit distance problem, or Erdős problem 90, has intrigued mathematicians for decades. The new result is no mere curiosity. Canadian mathematician Daniel Litt described it as “the first result produced autonomously by an AI that I find interesting in itself”.

The breakthrough, produced with a general-purpose AI model rather than one specialised for mathematics, also highlights how AI is changing mathematical research itself. Days after OpenAI’s paper, US mathematician Will Sawin followed the same line of reasoning to an improved result. Also last week, a team from Google DeepMind used one of their own models to resolve nine lesser open problems left by Erdős.

At the same time, results like this show us what kind of mathematics current AI models are good at – and where their capabilities are still uncertain.

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Dots and lines

Paul Erdős was one of the most prolific mathematicians of the twentieth century. He was famous for asking deceptively simple questions whose solutions often resisted decades of effort.

At first glance, the underlying problem seems relatively straightforward. Suppose you have some number of points – call the number n – drawn on an infinitely large piece of paper. Given you can arrange the points any way you like, how many pairs of points can be positioned exactly one unit of distance away from each other?

If you try this problem yourself (on a presumably finite piece of paper), you may quickly gravitate towards a square grid as a promising candidate for the best arrangement. The spacing of the grid naturally creates many pairs at a regular distance apart.

A square grid intuitively looks like a good solution to the planar unit distance problem. OpenAI

This intuition influenced much of the early thinking about the problem. As the number of points grows, grid-like arrangements continue to appear to be remarkably effective.

For decades it was widely believed these highly regular structures were about as good as it gets. Erdős himself conjectured that no construction could improve substantially on these intuitive arrangements, even for an extremely large number of points. (The new best result, by Sawin, reportedly only starts to yield improvements for around 102000000 points – that’s a one followed by two million zeroes.)

Over the past 80 years, mathematicians have tried to prove Erdős either right or wrong. Their efforts have linked the problem to other areas of mathematics called incidence geometry, graph theory and extremal combinatorics. While a full proof remained elusive, there was a general feeling that Erdős’ conjecture was probably true.

However, OpenAI’s recent breakthrough proved Erdős’ intuition wrong. The new result uses tools from an area of mathematics called algebraic number theory to show there are patterns of dots that involve many more unit-distance pairs than the square grid, for infinitely many values of n.

No hesitation

In an article OpenAI published alongside the new paper, several leading mathematicians remarked on the result.

Fields Medallist Timothy Gowers wrote that if a human researcher had submitted the paper with this result to the prestigious journal Annals of Mathematics, he would have recommended publication “without any hesitation”. He also added that no previous AI-generated proof had come close to this level of sophistication.

This breakthrough also represents the first major mathematical open problem solved with AI with minimal human intervention beyond the initial prompt. The accompanying paper shows the prompt given to the model, as well as a recount of the “chain of thought” conducted by the model.

This has renewed broader questions about the capabilities of AI to aid in, and perform, mathematical research.

Three keys to mathematical research

Research mathematicians have been using computers for a long time, but their work is rarely driven by computation alone. Most major breakthroughs emerge from a delicate combination of three things: expertise developed over years, sustained effort to apply that expertise creatively to explore ideas (many of which turn out to be dead ends), and occasional conceptual leaps that suddenly reorganise how a problem is understood.

The first two are domains where AI models excel: as noted by Gowers, large language models such as ChatGPT have an “encyclopaedic knowledge of mathematics”. Moreover, they can follow huge numbers of speculative lines of enquiry, even those unlikely to lead anywhere, without human time constraints.

The latter seems to be what provided the key to success here. In hindsight, it seems an expert given a small number of hints would be likely to be able to reach the same proof. As Gowers notes:

Many of the ideas needed for the proof were present in the literature already, and for such ideas either no hint is needed, since the expert is aware of that piece of literature, or a highly generic “look it up” hint would be enough.

Lightbulb moments

The harder question is how much AI can contribute to genuine conceptual leaps. These acute moments of insight, where a lightbulb moment reframes a problem in an entirely new way, are often seen as the most human part of mathematics.

These leaps are hard to formalise and even harder to predict. It remains unclear whether AI models can replicate them, even with recent advances.

What is clear is that AI models are causing a seismic shift in the way mathematics is discovered.

For centuries, progress in mathematics depended almost entirely on human creativity and persistence. Now, for the first time, researchers are working alongside systems capable of autonomously exploring enormous spaces of ideas and contributing to problems once thought accessible only to human insight.

For more such insights, log into www.international-maths-challenge.com.

*Credit for article given to Melissa Lee*


‘Knowing a half’ and ‘Seeing the whole

Maths Week England has been running for six years now and is designed to raise the profile of mathematics and promote a more positive and inclusive approach to its enjoyment in all walks of life. Two of its primary aims are to make the subject accessible to all students and to help teachers with planning special, low-cost yet high-impact maths activities in their own settings.

Cambridge Mathematics’ contribution in November 2025 was to offer teachers and their classes a chance to participate in a live webinar called “Fraction Exploration: ‘Knowing a half’ and ‘Seeing the whole'”. Teachers signed up to participate in one of two time slots and were invited to equip themselves and their students with paper, pencils, whiteboards, pens and dice for the expedition.

The who and where

Schools signed up from all over England and beyond!

The what

The teaching and learning of fractions is a common talking point for practitioners as they attempt to balance the mathematical significance of the topic with the challenges faced by learners in attempting to make sense of the numerous new concepts and techniques. We explored this topic in the Cambridge Mathematics Framework (a network of mathematical concepts and ideas), creating what we call a ‘submap’ of fractions learning and this was then tied to England’s National Curriculum objectives to focus the activities selected for this webinar.

This highlighted two landmarks in the development of fractions concepts that we have called ‘Knowing a half’ and ‘Seeing the whole’. A significant influence for both landmark ideas is a piece of research by Cortina and Visnovska (2015), which became the inspiration for the tasks and games which we designed to provide opportunities for discussion, reasoning and representation of these ideas on a number line.

The how

The bitesize tasks and discussions in the webinar gradually build up to these dice games:

Individual players, or pairs, score points during their turn for filling in one of the empty boxes with the number they roll on the die. The number they roll must be able to be entered into an empty box to continue or finish the game, otherwise they must miss that turn.

The images below capture a snapshot from two different games (A at the top and B below it). How might you answer the questions? And how do you think your students might answer?

Whether you use 1–6 or 0–9 dice, perhaps you’d like to explore the following questions:

  • When is it not possible to make two different fractions from rolling two numbers?
  • Is it ever possible to create two different fractions from rolling two numbers, which would end up on the same side of 1 when positioned on a number line?
  • Why can’t you use a zero in the denominator position of a fraction?
  • How does the game change if you play collaboratively, roll all the numbers first and see how many different ways there are to fill the empty boxes?

For more such insights, log into www.international-maths-challenge.com.

*Credit for article given to Tabitha Gould & Fran Watson*


How Inevitable Is the Concept of Numbers?

Everyone Has to Have Numbers… Don’t They?

The aliens arrive in a starship. Surely, one might think, to have all that technology they must have the idea of numbers. Or maybe one finds an uncontacted tribe deep in the jungle. Surely they too must have the idea of numbers. To us numbers seem so natural—and “obvious”—that it’s hard to imagine everyone wouldn’t have them. But if one digs a little deeper, it’s not so clear.

It’s said that there are human languages that have words for “one”, “a pair” and “many”, but no words for specific larger numbers. In our modern technological world that seems unthinkable. But imagine you’re out in the jungle, with your dogs. Each dog has particular characteristics, and most likely a particular name. Why should you ever think about them collectively, as all “just dogs”, amenable to being counted?

Imagine you have some sophisticated AI. Maybe it’s part of the starship. And in it this computation is going on:

Where are the numbers here? What is there to count?

Let’s change the rule for the computation a bit. Now here’s what we get:

And now we’re beginning to have something where numbers seem more relevant. We can identify a bunch of structures. They’re not all the same, but they have certain characteristics in common. And we can imagine describing what we’re seeing by just saying for example “There are 11 objects…”.

What Underlies the Idea of Numbers?

Dogs. Sheep. Trees. Stars. It doesn’t matter what kinds of things they are. Once you have a collection that you view as all somehow being “of the same kind”, you can imagine producing a count of them. Just consider each of them in turn, at every step applying some specific operation to the latest result from your count—so that computationally you build up something like:

For our ordinary integers, we can interpret s as being the “successor function”, or “add 1”. But at a fundamental level all that really matters is that we’ve reduced considering each of our original things separately to just repeatedly applying one operation, that gives a chain of results.

To get to this point, however, there’s a crucial earlier step: we have to have some definite concept of “things”—or essentially a notion of distinct objects. Our everyday world is of course full of these. There are distinct people. Distinct giraffes. Distinct chairs. But it gets a lot less clear if we think about clouds, for example. Or gusts of wind. Or abstract ideas.

So what is it that makes us able to identify some definite “countable thing”? Somehow the “thing” has to have some distinct existence—some degree of permanence or universality, and some ability to be independent and separated from other things.

There are many different specific criteria we could imagine. But there’s one general approach that’s very familiar to us humans: the way we talk about “things” in human language. We take in some visual scene. But when we describe it in human language we’re always in effect coming up with a symbolic description of the scene.

There’s a cluster of orange pixels over there. Brown ones over there. But in human language we try to reduce all that detail to a much simpler symbolic description. There’s a chair over there. A table over there.

It’s not obvious that we would be able to do this kind of “symbolicization” in any meaningful way. But what makes it possible is that pieces of what we see are repeatable enough that we can consider them “the same kind of thing”, and, for example, give them definite names in human language. “That’s a table; that’s a chair; etc.”.

There’s a complicated feedback loop, that I’ve written about elsewhere. If we see something often enough, it makes sense to give it a name (“that’s a shrub”; “that’s a headset”). But once we’ve given it a name, it’s much easier for us to talk and think about it. And so we tend to find or produce more of it—which makes it more common in our environment, and more familiar to us.

In the abstract, it’s not obvious that “symbolicization” will be possible. It could be that the fundamental behavior of the world will always just generate more and more diversity and complexity, and never produce any kind of “repeated objects” that could, for example, reasonably be given consistent names.

One might imagine that as soon as one believes that the world follows definite laws, then it’d be inevitable that there’d be enough regularity to guarantee that “symbolicization” is possible. But that ignores the phenomenon of computational irreducibility.

Consider the rule:

We might imagine that with such a simple rule we’d inevitably be able to describe the behavior it produces in a simple way. And, yes, we can always run the rule to find out what behavior it produces. But it’s a fundamental fact of the computational universe that the result doesn’t have to be simple:

And in general we can expect that the behavior will be computationally irreducible, in the sense that there’s no way to reproduce it without effectively tracing through each step in the application of the rule.

With behaviors like these

it’s perfectly possible to imagine giving a complete symbolic description of what’s going on. But as soon as there’s computational irreducibility, this won’t be possible. There’ll be no way to have a “compressed” symbolicized description of the whole behavior.

So how come we manage to describe so much with language, in a “symbolic” way? It turns out that even when a system—such as our universe—is fundamentally computationally irreducible, it’s inevitable that it will have “pockets” of computational reducibility. And these pockets of computational reducibility are crucially important to how we operate in the universe. Because they’re what let us have a coherent experience of the world, with things happening predictably according to identifiable laws, and so on.

And they also mean that—even though we can’t expect to describe everything symbolically—there’ll always be some things we can. And some places where we can expect the concept of numbers to be useful.

What the Universe Is Like

The history of physics might make one think that numbers would be a necessary part of the structure of any fundamental theory of our physical universe. But the models of physics suggested by our Physics Project have no intrinsic reference to numbers.

Instead, they just involve a giant network of elements that’s continually getting rewritten according to certain rules. There aren’t intrinsically coordinates, or quantities, or anything that would normally be associated with numbers. And even though the underlying rules may be simple, the detailed overall behavior of the system is highly complex, and full of computational irreducibility.

But the key point is that as observers with particular characteristics embedded in this system we’re only sampling certain features of it. And the features we sample in effect tap into pockets of reducibility. Which is where “simplifying concepts” like numbers can enter.

Let’s talk first about time. We’re used to the experience that time progresses in some kind of linear fashion, perhaps marked off by something like counting rotations of our planet (i.e. days). But at the lowest level in our models, time doesn’t work that way. Instead, what happens is that the universe evolves by virtue of lots of elementary updating events happening throughout the network.

These updating events have certain causal relationships. (A particular updating event, for example, might “causally depend” on another event because it uses as “input” something that’s the “output” of the other event.) In the end, there’s a whole “causal graph” of causal relationships between updating events:

The full causal graph is immensely complex, and suffused with computational irreducibility. But we—as the observers we are—sample only certain features of this graph. And—as I’ve recently discussed elsewhere—it seems that the essence of our concept of consciousness is to define certain aspects of that sampling. In particular, despite all the updating events in the universe, and the complex causal relationships between them, we end up “parsing” the samples we take by imagining that we have a definite “sequentialized” thread of experience, or in effect that time progresses in a purely linear fashion.

How do we achieve this? One convenient idealization—developed for thinking about spacetime and relativity—is to set up a “reference frame” in which we imagine dividing the causal graph into a sequence of slices (as in the picture above) that we consider to correspond to “instantaneous complete states of the universe” at successive “moments in time”. It’s not obvious that it’ll be consistent to do this. But between causal invariance and assumptions about the computational boundedness of the observer it turns out that it is—and that the “experience” of the universe for such an observer must follow the laws of physics that we know from general relativity.

So what does this tell us about the emergence of numbers? At the lowest level, the universe is full of computational irreducibility in which there’s no obvious sign of anything like numbers. But in experiencing the universe through the basic features of our consciousness we essentially force some kind of “number-like” sequentiality in time, reflected in the validity of general relativity, with its “essentially numericalized” notion of time. Or, in other words, “time” (or the “progress of the universe”) isn’t intrinsically “numerical”. But the way we—as “conscious observers”—sample it, it’s necessarily sequentialized, with one moment of time being succeeded by another, in a fundamentally “numerical” sequence.

It’s one thing, though, to sample the behavior of the universe in “time slices” in which all of space has been elided together. But for one to be able to “count” the moments in the passage of time (say aggregated into days), there has to be a certain “sameness” to those moments. The universe can’t do wildly different things at each successive moment; it has to have a certain coherence and uniformity that let us consider different moments as somehow “equivalent enough” to be able simply to be “counted”.

And in fact the emergence of general relativity as the large-scale limit of our models (as viewed by observers like us) pretty much guarantees this result, except in certain pathological or extreme cases.

OK, so for observers like us, time in our universe is in some sense “inevitably numerical”. But what about space? At the lowest level in our models, space just consists of a giant and continually updating network of “atoms of space”. And to talk about something like “distance in space” we first have to get some kind of “time-consistent” version of the network. It’s very much the same situation as with time. To get a simple definition of how time works, we have to elide space. Now, to have any chance of getting a simple definition of how space works, we have to somehow “elide time”.

Or, put another way, we have to think about dividing up the causal graph into “spatial regions” (the vertical “timelike” analog of the horizontal “spacelike slices” we used above) where we can in effect combine all events that occur at any time, in that “region of space”. (Needless to say, in practice we don’t want it to be “any time”—just some span of time that is long compared to what elapses between individual updating events.)

What is the analog for space of the “consciousness assumption” that time progresses in a single, sequential thread? Presumably it’s that we can sample space without having to think about time, or in other words, that we can consistently construct a stable notion of space.

Let’s say we’re trying to find the shortest “travel path” between two “points in space”. At the outset, the definition is quite subtle—not least because there are no “statically defined” “points in space”. Every part of the network is being continually rewritten, so in a sense by the time you “get to the other point”, it certainly won’t be the same “atom of space” as when you started out. And to avoid this, you essentially have to elide time. And just like for the case of spacelike slices for sequentialization in time, there are certain consistent choices of timelike slices that can be made.

And assuming such a choice is made, there will then be “time-elided” (or, roughly, time-independent) paths between points in space, analogous to our previous “space-elided” “path through time”. So then how might we measure the length of a path in space, or, effectively the distance between two points? In direct analogy to the case of time, if there is sufficient uniformity in the spatial structure then we can expect to just “count things” to get a numerical version of distance.

Sequentialization in time is what allows us to have the sense that we maintain a coherent existence—and a coherent thread of experience—through time. The ability to do something similar in space is what gives us the sense that we have a coherent existence through space, or, in other words, that we can maintain our identity when we move around in space.

In principle, there might be nothing like “pure motion”: it might be that any “movement in space” would necessarily change the structure and character of things. But the point is that one can consistently label positions in space so that this doesn’t happen, and “pure motion” is possible. And once we’ve done that, we’re again essentially forcing there to be a notion of distance, that can be measured with numbers.

OK, but so if we sample the universe in the way we expect a conscious observer who maintains their identity as they move to do, then there’s a certain inevitable “numerical character” to the way we measure time and space. But what “stuff in the universe”? Can we expect that also to be characterized by numbers? We talked above about “things”. Can the universe contain “things” that can for example readily be counted?

Remember that in our models the whole universe—and everything in it—is just a giant network. And at the lowest level this network is just atoms of space and connections between them—and nothing that we can immediately consider a “thing”. But we expect that within the structure of the network there are essentially topological features that are more like “things”.

A good example is black holes. When we look at the network—and particularly the causal graph—we can potentially identify the signature of event horizons and a black hole. And we can imagine “counting black holes”.

What makes this possible? First, that black holes have a certain degree of permanence. And second, that they can be to a large extent treated as independent. And third, that they can all readily be identified as “the same kind of thing”. Needless to say, none of these features is absolute. Black holes form, merge, evaporate—and so aren’t completely permanent. Black holes can have gravitational—and also presumably quantum—effects on each other, and so aren’t completely independent. But they’re permanent and independent enough that it’s a useful approximation to treat them as “definite things” that can readily be counted.

Beyond black holes, there’s another clear example of “countable” things in the universe: particles, like electrons, photons, quarks and so on. (And, yes, it won’t be a big surprise if there’s a deep connection between particles and black holes in our models.) Particles—like black holes—are somewhat permanent, somewhat independent and have a high degree of “sameness”.

A defining feature of particles is that they’re somewhat localized (for us, presumably in both physical and branchial space), and maintain their identity with time. They can be emitted and absorbed, so aren’t completely permanent, but somehow they exist for long enough to be identified.

It’s then a fundamental observation in physics that particles come only in certain discrete species—and within these species every particle (say, every electron) is identical, save for its position and momentum (and spin direction). We don’t yet know within our models exactly how such particles work, but the assumption is that they correspond to certain discrete possible “topological obstructions” in the behavior of the network. And much like a vortex in a fluid, their topological character endows them with a certain permanence.

It’s worth understanding that in our models, not everything that “goes on in the universe” can necessarily be best characterized in terms of particles. In principle one might be able to think of every piece of activity in the network as somehow related to a sufficiently small or short-lived “particle”. But mostly there won’t be “room for” the characteristics of something we can identify as a particular “countable” particle to emerge.

An extreme case is what would be considered zero-point fluctuations in traditional quantum field theory: an ever-present infinite collection of short-lived virtual particle pairs. In our models this is not something one immediately thinks of in terms of particles: rather, it is continual activity in the network that in effect “knits space together”.

But in answering the question of whether physics inevitably leads to a notion of numbers, one can certainly point to situations where definite “countable” particles can be identified. But is this like the case of time and space that we discussed above: the numbers are somehow “not intrinsic” but just appear for “observers like us”?

Once again I suspect the answer is “yes”. But now the special feature of us as observers is that we think about the universe in terms of multiple, independent processes or experiments. We set things up so that we can concentrate, say, on the scattering of two particles that are initially sufficiently separated from everything else to be independent of it. But without this separation, we’d have no real way to reliably “count the particles”, and characterize what’s happening in terms of specific particles.

There’s actually a direct analog of this in a simple cellular automaton. On the left is a process involving “separated countable particles”; on the right—using exactly the same rule—is one where there are no similar particle-based “asymptotic states”:

Is All Computational Reducibility Numerical?

As we’ve discussed, even with simple underlying rules, many systems behave in computationally irreducible ways. But when there’s computational reducibility—and when, in a sense, we can successfully “jump ahead” in the computation—are numbers always involved in doing that?

In cases like these

where there’s clear repetition in the behavior, numbers are an obvious path to figuring out what’s going to happen. Want to know what the system will do at step number t? Just take the number t and do some “numerical computation” on it (typically here involving modulo arithmetic) and immediately get the result.

But very often you end up treating t as a “number in name only”. Consider nested patterns like these:

It’s possible to work out the behavior at step t in a computationally reduced way, but it involves treating t not so much as a number (that one might, say, do arithmetic on) but instead more just a sequence of bits that one computes bitwise functions like BitXor on.

There are definitely other cases where the ability to jump ahead in a computation relies specifically on the properties of numbers. A somewhat special example is a cellular automaton whose rows can be thought of as digits of a number in base 6, that at each step gets multiplied by 3 (it’s not obvious that this procedure will be local to digits, “cellular-automaton-style”, but it is):

 

In this case, repeated squaring of the rows thought of as numbers quickly gets the result—though actually t is again used more for its digits than its “numerical value”.

When one explores the computational universe, by far the most common sources of computational reducibility are repetition and nesting. But other examples do show up. A few are obviously “numerical”. But most are not. And typically what happens is just that there is an alternative, very much more efficient program that exists to compute the same results as the original program. But the more efficient program is still “just a program” with no particular connection to anything involving numbers.

Fast numbers-based ways to do particular computations are often viewed as representing “exact solutions” to corresponding mathematical problems. Such exact solutions tend to be highly prized. But they also tend to be few and far between—and rather specific.

Could there be other “generic” forms of computational reducibility beyond repetition and nesting? In general we don’t know—though it’d be an important thing to find out. Still, there is in a sense one other kind of computational reducibility that we do know about, and that’s been very widely used in mathematical science: the phenomenon of continuity.

So far, we’ve mostly been talking about numbers that are integers, and that can at some level be used to “count distinct things”. But in mathematics and mathematical science it’s very common to think not about discrete integers, but about the continuum of real numbers.

And even when there’s some discrete process going on underneath—that might even show computational irreducibility—it can still be the case that in the continuum limit there’s a “numerical description”, say in terms of a differential equation. If one looks, say, at cellular automata, it’s fairly rare to find examples that have such continuum limits. But in the models from our Physics Project—that have much less built-in structure—it seems to be almost a generic feature that there’s a continuum limit that can be described by continuous equations of just the kind that have shown up in traditional mathematical physics.

But beyond taking limits to derive continuum behavior, one can also just symbolically specify equations whose variables are from the start, say, real numbers. And in such cases one might think that everything would always “work out in terms of numbers”. But actually, even in cases like this, things can be more complicated.

Yes, for the equations that are typically discussed in textbooks, it’s common to get solutions that can be represented just as evaluating certain functions of numbers. But if one looks at other equations and other situations, there’s often no known way to get these kinds of “exact solutions”. And instead one basically has to try to find an explicit computation that can approximate the behavior of the equation.

And it seems likely that in many cases such computations will end up being computationally irreducible. Yes, they’re in principle being done in terms of numbers. But the dominant force in determining what happens is a general computational process, not something that depends on the specific structure of numbers.

And, by the way, it’s no coincidence that in the past couple of decades, as more and more modeling of systems with complex behavior is done, there’s been an overwhelming shift away from models that are based on equations (and numbers) to ones that are based directly on computation and computational rules.

But Do We Have to Use Numbers? The Computational Future

Why do we use numbers so much? Is it something about the world? Or is it more something about us?

We discussed above the example of fundamental physics. And we argued that even though at the most fundamental level numbers really aren’t involved, our sampling of what happens in the universe leads us to a description that does involve numbers. And in this case, the origin of the way we sample the universe has deep roots in the nature of our consciousness, and our fundamental way of experiencing the universe, with our particular sensory apparatus, place in the universe, etc.

What about the appearance of numbers in the history of science and engineering? Why are they so prevalent there? In a sense, like the situation with the universe, I don’t think it’s that the underlying systems we’re dealing with have any fundamental connection to numbers. Rather, I think it’s that we’ve chosen to “sample” aspects of these systems that we can somehow understand or control, and these often involve numbers.

In science—and particularly physical science—we have tended to concentrate on setting up situations and experiments where there’s computational reducibility and where it’s plausible that we can make predictions about what’s going to happen. And similarly in engineering, we tend to set up systems that are sufficiently computationally reducible that we can foresee what they’re going to do.

As I discussed above, working with numbers isn’t the only way to tap into computational reducibility, but it’s the most familiar way, and it’s got an immense weight of historical experience behind it.

But do we even expect that computational reducibility will be a continuing feature of science and engineering? If we want to make the fullest use of computation, it’s inevitable that we’ll have to bring in computational irreducibility. It’s a new kind of science, and it’s a new kind of engineering. And in both cases we can expect that the role of numbers will be at least much reduced.

If we look at human history, numbers have played a quite crucial role in the organization of human society. They’re used to keep records, specify value in commerce, define how resources should be allocated, determine how governance should happen, and countless other things.

But does it have to be that way, or is it merely that numbers provide a convenient way to set things up so that we humans can understand what’s going on? Let’s say that we’re trying to achieve the objective of having an efficient transportation system for carrying people around. The traditional “numbers-based” way of doing that would be to have, say, trains that run at specific “numerical” times (“every 15 minutes”, or whatever).

In a sense, this is a simple, “computationally reducible” solution—that for example we can easily understand. But there’s potentially a much better solution, at least if we’re able to make use of sophisticated computation. Given the complete pattern of who wants to go where, we can dispatch specific vehicles to drive in whatever complicated arrangement is needed to optimally deliver people to their destinations. It won’t be like the trains, with their regular times. Instead, it’ll be something that looks more complex, and computationally irreducible. And it won’t be easy to characterize in terms of numbers.

And I think it’s a pretty general phenomenon: numbers provide a good “computationally reducible” way to set something up. But there are other—perhaps much more efficient—ways, that make more serious use of computation, and involve computational irreducibility, but don’t rely on numbers.

None of these computational approaches are possible until we have sophisticated computation everywhere. And even today we’re just in the early stages of broadly deploying the level of computational sophistication that’s needed. But as another example of how this can play out, consider economic systems.

One of the first and historically strongest uses of numbers has been in characterizing amounts of money and prices of things. But are “numerical prices” the only possible setup for an economic system? We already have plenty of examples of dynamic pricing, where there’s no “list price”, but instead AIs or bots are effectively bidding in real time to determine what transaction will happen.

Ultimately an economic system is based on a large network of transactions. One person wants to get a cookie. The person they’re getting it from wants to rent a movie. Somewhat in analogy to the transportation example above, with enough computation available, we could imagine a situation where at every node in the network there are bots dynamically arranging transactions and deciding what can happen and what cannot, ultimately based on certain goals or preferences expressed by people. This setup is slightly reminiscent of our model of fundamental physics—with causal graphs from physics now being something like supply chains.

And as in the physics case, there’s no necessity to have numbers involved at the lowest level. But if we want to “sample the system in a human way” we’ll end up describing it in collective terms, and potentially end up with an emergent notion of price a bit like the way there’s an emergent notion of gravitational field in the case of physics.

So in other words, if it’s just the bots running our economic system, they’ll “just be doing computation” without any particular need for numbers. But if we try to understand what’s going on, that’s when numbers will appear.

And so it is, I suspect, with other examples of the appearance of numbers in the organization of human society. If things have to be implemented—and understood—by humans, there’s no choice but to leverage computational reducibility, which is most familiarly done through numbers. But when things are instead done by AIs or bots, there’s no such need for computational reducibility.

Will there still be “human-level descriptions” that involve numbers? No doubt there’ll at least be some “natural-science-like” characterizations of what’s going on. But perhaps they’ll most conveniently be stated in terms of computational reducibility that’s set up using concepts other than numbers—that humans in the future will learn about. Or perhaps numbers will be such a convenient “implementation layer” that they’ll end up being used for essentially all human-level descriptions.

But at a fundamental level my guess is that ultimately numbers will fall away in importance in the organization of human society, giving way to more detailed computation-based decision making. And maybe in the end numbers will come to seem a little like the way logic as used in the Middle Ages might seem to us today: a framework for determining things that’s much less complete and powerful than what we now have.

Are Numbers Even Inevitable in Mathematics?

Whatever their role in science, technology and society, one place where numbers seem fundamentally central is mathematics. But is this really something that is necessary, or is it instead somehow an artifact of the particular history or presentation of human mathematics?

A common view is that at the most fundamental level mathematics should be thought of as an exploration of the consequences of certain abstract underlying axioms. But which axioms should these be? Historically a fairly small set has been used. And a first question is whether these implicitly or explicitly lead to the appearance of numbers.

The axioms for ordinary logic (which are usually assumed in all areas of mathematics) don’t have what’s needed to support the usual concept of numbers. The same is true of axioms for areas of abstract algebra like group theory—as well as basic Euclidean geometry (at least for integers). But the Peano axioms for arithmetic are specifically set up to support integers.

But there is a subtlety here. What the Peano axioms actually do is effectively define certain constraints on abstract constructs. Ordinary integers are one “solution” to those constraints. But Gödel’s theorem shows that there are also an infinite number of other solutions: non-standard “numbers” with weird properties that also happen to follow the same overall axioms.

So in a sense mathematics based on the Peano axioms can be interpreted as being “about” ordinary numbers—but it can also be interpreted as being about other, exotic things. And it’s pretty much the same story with the standard axioms of set theory: the mathematics they generate can be interpreted as covering ordinary numbers, but it can also be interpreted as covering other things.

But what happens if we ignore the historical development of human mathematics, and just start picking axiom systems “at random”? Most likely they won’t have any immediately recognizable interpretation, but we can still go ahead and build up a whole network of theorems and results from them. So will such axiom systems end up leading to constructs that can be interpreted as numbers?

This is again a somewhat tricky question. The Principle of Computational Equivalence suggests that axiom systems with nontrivial behavior will typically show computation universality. And that means that (at least in some metamathematical sense) it’s possible to set up an encoding of any other axiom system within them.

So in particular it should be possible to reproduce what’s needed to support numbers. (Again, there are subtleties here to do with axiom schemas, and their use in supporting the concept of induction, which seems quite central to the idea of numbers.) But if we just look at the raw theorems from a particular axiom system—say as generated by an automated theorem-proving system—it’ll be very hard to tell what can be interpreted as being “related to numbers”.

But what if we restrict ourselves to mathematical results that have been proved by humans—of which there are a few million? There are a number of recent efforts to formalize at least a few tens of thousands of these, and show how they can be formally derived from specific axioms.

But now we can ask what the dependencies of these results are. How many of them need to “go through the idea of numbers”? We can get a sense of this by doing “empirical metamathematics” on a particular math formalization system (here Metamath):

And what we see is that at least in a human formalization of mathematics, numbers do indeed seem to play a very central role. Of course, this doesn’t tell us whether in principle results, say in topology, could be proved “without numbers”; it just tells us that in this particular formalization numbers are used to do that.

We also can’t tell whether numbers were just “convenient for proofs” or whether in fact the actual mathematical results picked to formalize were somehow based on their “accessibility” through numbers.

Given any (universal) axiom system there are an infinite number of theorems that can be proved from it. But the question is: which of these theorems will be considered “interesting”? And one should expect that theorems that can be interpreted in terms of concepts—like numbers—that have historically become well known in human mathematics will be preferred.

But is this just a story of accidents of the history of mathematics, or is there more to it?

The traditional view of the foundations of mathematics has involved imagining that some particular axiom system is picked, and then mathematics is some kind of exploration of the implications of this axiom system. It’s the analog of saying: pick some particular rule for a potential model of the universe, then see what consequences it has.

But what we’ve realized is that at least when it comes to studying the universe, we don’t fundamentally have to pick a particular rule: instead, we can construct a rulial multiway system in which, in effect, all possible rules are simultaneously used. And we can imagine doing something similar for mathematics. Instead of picking a particular underlying axiom system, just consider the structure made from simultaneously working out the consequences of all possible axiom systems.

The resulting object seems to be closely related to things like the infinity groupoid that arises in higher category theory. But the important point here is that in a sense this object is a representation of all possible results in all possible forms of mathematics. But now the question is: how should we humans sample this? If we’re in a sense computationally bounded, we basically have to pick a certain “reference frame”.

There seems to be a close analogy here to physics. In the case of physics, basic features of our consciousness seem to constrain us to certain kinds of reference frames, from which we inevitably “parse” the whole rulial multiway system as following known laws of physics.

So perhaps something similar is going on in mathematics. Perhaps here too something very much like the basic features of consciousness constrain our sampling of the limiting rulial object. But what then are the analogs of the laws of physics? Presumably they will be some kind of as-yet-undiscovered general “laws of bulk metamathematics”. Maybe they correspond to overall structural principles of “mathematics as we sample it” (conceivably related to category theory). Or maybe—as in the case of space and time in physics—they actually inevitably lead to something akin to numbers.

In other words, maybe—just as in physics the appearance of numbers can be thought of as reflecting aspects of our characteristics as observers—so too this may be happening in mathematics. Maybe given even the barest outline of our human characteristics, it’s inevitable that we’ll perceive numbers to be central to mathematics.

But what about our aliens in their starship? In physics we’ve realized that our view of the universe—and the laws of physics we consider it to follow—is not the only possible one, and there are others completely incoherent with ours that other kinds of observers could have. And so it will be with mathematics. We have a particular view—that’s perhaps ultimately based on things like features of our consciousness—but it’s not the only possible one. There can be other ones that still describe the same limiting rulial object, but are completely incoherent with what we’re used to.

Needless to say, by the time we can even talk about “aliens arriving in a starship”, we’ve got to assume that their “view of the universe” (or, in effect, their location in rulial space) is not too far from our own. And perhaps this also implies a certain alignment in the “view of mathematics”, perhaps even making numbers inevitable.

But in the abstract, I think we can expect that there are “views of mathematics” that are incoherently different from our own, and that while in a sense they are “still mathematics”, they don’t have any of the familiar features of our typical view of mathematics, like numbers.

So, Are Numbers Inevitable?

Numbers have been part of human civilization throughout recorded history. But here we’ve asked the fundamental question of why that’s been the case. And what we’ve seen is that there doesn’t appear to be anything ultimately fundamental about the universe—or, for example, about mathematics—that inevitably leads to numbers. Instead, numbers seem to arise through our human efforts to “parse” what’s going on.

But it’s not just that numbers were invented at some point in human history, and then used. There’s something more fundamental and essential about us that makes numbers inevitable for us.

Our general capability for sophisticated computation—which the Principle of Computational Equivalence implies is shared by many systems—isn’t what does it. And in fact when there’s lots of sophisticated computation—and computational irreducibility—going on, numbers aren’t a particularly useful description.

Instead, it’s when there’s computational reducibility that numbers can appear. And the point is that there are fundamental things about us that lead us to pick out pockets of computational reducibility. In particular, what we view as consciousness seems to be fundamentally related to the fact that we sample things in a particular way that leverages computational reducibility.

Not all computational reducibility need be related to numbers, but some examples of it are. And it’s these that seem to lead to the widespread appearance of numbers in our experience of the universe.

Could things be different? If we were different, definitely. And, for example, there’s no reason to think that a distributed AI system would have to intrinsically make use of anything like numbers. Yes, in our attempts to understand or explain it, we might use numbers. But nothing in the system itself would “know about” numbers.

And indeed by operating like this, the system would be able to make richer use of the computational resources available in the computational universe of possible programs. Numbers have been widely used in science, engineering and many aspects of the organization of society. But as things become more computationally sophisticated, I think we can expect that the intrinsic use of numbers will progressively taper off.

But it’ll still be true that as long as we preserve core aspects of our experience as what we consider conscious observers some version of numbers will in the end be inevitable for us. We can aspire to generalize from numbers, and, for example, sample other representations of computational reducibility. But for now, numbers seem to be inextricably connected to core aspects of our existence.

Thanks to the organizers of Numerous Numerosity for the “essay prompt” that led to this piece, and to Jonathan Gorard for some very helpful input.

For more such insights, log into www.international-maths-challenge.com.

*Credit for article given to Stephen Wolfram*


What Is Ruliology?

Ruliology is taking off! And more and more people are talking about it. But what is ruliology? Since I invented the term, I decided I should write something to explain it. But then I realized: I actually already wrote something back in 2021 when I first invented the term. What I wrote back then was part of something longer. But here now is the part that explains ruliology:

If one sets up a system to follow a particular set of simple rules, what will the system do? Or, put another way, how do all those simple programs out there in the computational universe of possible programs behave?

These are pure, abstract questions of basic science. They’re questions one’s led to ask when one’s operating in the computational paradigm that I describe in A New Kind of Science. But at some level they’re questions about the specific science of what abstract rules (that we can describe as programs) do.

What is that science? It’s not computer science, because that would be about programs we construct for particular purposes, rather than ones that are just “out there in the wilds of the computational universe”. It’s not (as such) mathematics, because it’s all about “seeing what rules do” rather than finding frameworks in which things can be proved. And in the end, it’s clear it’s actually a new science—that’s rich and broad, and that I, at least, have had the pleasure of practicing for forty years.

But what should this science be called? I’ve wondered about this for decades. I’ve filled so many pages with possible names. Could it be based on Greek or Latin words associated with rules? Those are arch- and reg-: very well-trafficked roots. What about words associated with computation? That’d be logis- or calc-. None of these seem to work. But—in something akin to the process of metamodeling—we can ask: What is the essence of what we want to communicate in the word?

It’s all about studying rules, and what their consequences are. So why not the simple and obvious “ruliology”? Yes, it’s a new and slightly unusual-sounding word. But I think it does well at communicating what this science that I’ve enjoyed for so long is about. And I, for one, will be pleased to call myself a “ruliologist”.

But what is ruliology really about? It’s a pure, basic science—and a very clean and precise one. It’s about setting up abstract rules, and then seeing what they do. There’s no “wiggle room”. No issue with “reproducibility”. You run a rule, and it does what it does. The same every time.

What does the rule 73 cellular automaton starting from a single black cell do? What does some particular Turing machine do? What about some particular multiway string substitution system? These are specific questions of ruliology.

At first you might just do the computation, and visualize the result. But maybe you notice some particular feature. And then you can use whatever methods it takes to get a specific ruliological result—and to establish, for example, that in the rule 73 pattern, black cells appear only in odd-length blocks.

Ruliology tends to start with specific cases of specific rules. But then it generalizes, looking at broader ranges of cases for a particular rule, or whole classes of rules. And it always has concrete things to do—visualizing behavior, measuring specific features, and so on.

But ruliology quickly comes face to face with computational irreducibility. What does some particular case of some particular rule eventually do? That may require an irreducible amount of computational effort to find out—and if one insists on knowing what amounts to a general truly infinite-time result, it may be formally undecidable. It’s the same story with looking at different cases of a rule, or different rules. Is there any case that does this? Or any rule that does it?

What’s remarkable to me—even after 40 years of ruliology—is how many surprises there end up being. You have some particular kind of rule. And it looks as if it’s only going to behave in some particular way. But no, eventually you find a case where it does something completely different, and unexpected. And, yes, this is in effect computational irreducibility reaching into what one’s seeing.

 

Sometimes I’ve thought of ruliology as being at first a bit like natural history. You’re exploring the world of simple programs, finding what strange creatures exist in it—and capturing them for study. (And, yes, in actual biological natural history, the diversity of what one sees is presumably at its core exactly the same computational phenomenon we see in abstract ruliology.)

So how does ruliology relate to complexity? It’s a core part—and in fact the most fundamental part—of studying the foundations of complexity. Ruliology is like studying complexity at its ultimate source. And about seeing just how complexity is generated from its simplest origins.

Ruliology is what builds raw material—and intuition—for making models. It’s what shows us what’s possible in the computational universe, and what we can use to model—and understand—the systems we study.

In metamodeling we’re going from models that have been constructed, and drilling down to see what’s underneath them. In ruliology we’re in a sense going the other way, building up from the minimal foundations to see what can happen.

In some ways, ruliology is like natural science. It’s taking the computational universe as an abstracted analog of nature, and studying how things work in it. But in other ways, ruliology is something more generative than natural science: because within the science itself, it’s thinking not only about what is, but also about what can abstractly be generated.

Ruliology in some ways starts as an experimental science, and in some ways is abstract and theoretical from the beginning. It’s experimental because it’s often concerned with just running simple programs and seeing what they do (and in general, computational irreducibility suggests you often can’t do better). But it’s abstract and theoretical in the sense that what’s being run is not some actual thing in the natural world, with all its details and approximations, but something completely precise, defined and computational.

Like natural science, ruliology starts from observations—but then builds up to theories and principles. Long ago I found a simple classification of cellular automata (starting from random initial conditions)—somehow reminiscent of identifying solids, liquids and gases, or different kingdoms of organisms. But beyond such classifications, there are also much broader principles—with the most important, I believe, being the Principle of Computational Equivalence.

The everyday course of doing ruliology doesn’t require engaging directly with the whole Principle of Computational Equivalence. But throughout ruliology, the principle is crucial in guiding intuition, and having an idea of what to expect. And, by the way, it’s from ruliology that we can get evidence (like the universality of rule 110, and of the 2,3 Turing machine) for the broad validity of the principle.

I’ve been doing ruliology (though not by that name) for forty years. And I’ve done a lot of it. In fact, it’s probably been my top methodology in everything I’ve done in science. It’s what led me to understand the origins of complexity, first in cellular automata. It’s what led me to formulate the general ideas in A New Kind of Science. And it’s what gave me the intuition and impetus to launch our new Physics Project

I find ruliology deeply elegant, and satisfying. There’s something very aesthetic—at least to me—about the purity of just seeing what simple rules do. (And it doesn’t hurt that they often make very pleasing images.) It’s also satisfying when one can go from so little and get so much—and do so automatically, just by running something on a computer.

And as well I like the fundamental permanence of ruliology. If one’s dealing with the simplest rules of some type, they’re going to be foundational not only now, but forever. It’s like simple mathematical constructs—like the icosahedron. There were icosahedral dice in ancient Egypt. But when we find them today, their shapes still seem completely modern—because the icosahedron is something fundamental and timeless. Just like the rule 30 pattern or countless other discoveries in ruliology.

In a sense perhaps one of the biggest surprises is that ruliology is such a comparatively new activity. But as I cataloged in A New Kind of Science, it has precursors going back hundreds and perhaps thousands of years. But without the whole paradigm of A New Kind of Science, there wasn’t a context to understand why ruliology is so significant.

So what constitutes a good piece of ruliology? I think it’s all about simplicity and minimality. The best ruliology happens after metamodeling is finished—and one’s really dealing with the simplest, most minimal class of rules of some particular type. In my efforts to do ruliology, for example in A New Kind of Science, I like to be able to “explain” the rules I’m using just by an explicit diagram, if possible with no words needed.

Then it’s important to show what the rules do—as explicitly as possible. Sometimes—as in cellular automata—there’s a very obvious visual representation that can be used. But in other cases it’s important to do the work to find some scheme for visualization that’s as explicit as possible, and that both shows the whole of what’s going on and doesn’t introduce distracting or arbitrary additional elements.

It’s amazing how often in doing ruliology I’ll end up making an array of thumbnail images of how certain rules behave. And, again, the explicitness of this is important. Yes, one often wants to do various kinds of filtering, say of rules. But in the end I’ve found that one needs to just look at what happens. Because that’s the only way to successfully notice the unexpected, and to get a sense of the irreducible complexity of what’s out there in the computational universe of possible rules.

When I see papers that report what amounts to ruliology, I always like it when there are explicit pictures. I’m disappointed if all I see are formal definitions, or plots with curves on them. It’s an inevitable consequence of computational irreducibility that in doing good ruliology, one has to look at things more explicitly.

One of the great things about ruliology as a field of study is how easy it is to explore new territory. The computational universe contains an infinite number of possible rules. And even among ones that one might consider “simple”, there are inevitably astronomically many on any human scale. But, OK, if one explores some particular ruliological system, what of it?

It’s a bit like chemistry where one explores properties of some particular molecule. Exploring some particular class of rules, you may be lucky enough to come upon some new phenomenon, or understand some new general principle. But what you know you’ll be doing is systematically adding to the body of knowledge in ruliology.

Why is that important? For a start, ruliology is what provides the raw material for making models, so you’re in effect creating a template for some potential future model. And in addition, when it comes to technology, an important approach that I’ve discussed (and used) quite extensively involves “mining” the computational universe for “technologically useful” programs. And good ruliology is crucial in helping to make that feasible.

It’s a bit like creating technology in the physical universe. It was crucial, for example, that good physics and chemistry had been done on liquid crystals. Because that’s what allowed them to be identified—and used—in making displays

Beyond its “pragmatic” value for models and for technology, another thing ruliology does is to provide “empirical raw material” for making broader theories about the computational universe. When I discovered the Principle of Computational Equivalence, it was as a result of several years of detailed ruliology on particular types of rules. And good ruliology is what prepares and catalogs examples from which theoretical advances can be made.

It’s worth mentioning that there’s a certain tendency to want to “nail down ruliology” using, for example, mathematics. And sometimes it’s possible to derive a nice summary of ruliological results using, say, some piece of discrete mathematics. But it’s remarkable how quickly the mathematics tends to get out of hand, with even a very simple rule having behavior that can only be captured by large amounts of obscure mathematics. But of course that’s in a sense just computational irreducibility rearing its head. And showing that mathematics is not the methodology to use—and that instead something new is needed. Which is precisely where ruliology comes in.

I’ve spent many years defining the character and subject matter of what I’m now calling ruliology. But there’s something else I’ve done too, which is to build a large tower of practical technology for actually doing ruliology. It’s taken more than forty years to build up to what’s now the full-scale computational language that is the Wolfram Language. But all that time, I was using what we were building to do ruliology.

The Wolfram Language is great and important for many things. But when it comes to ruliology, it’s simply a perfect fit. Of course it’s got lots of relevant built-in features. Like visualization, graph manipulation, etc., as well as immediate support for systems like cellular automata, substitution systems and Turing machines. But what’s even more important is that its fundamental symbolic structure gives it an explicit way to represent—and run—essentially any computational rule.

In doing practical ruliological explorations—and for example searching the computational universe—it’s also useful to have immediate support for things like parallel computation. But another crucial aspect of the Wolfram Language for doing practical ruliology is the concept of notebooks and computable documents. Notebooks let one organize both the process of research and the presentation of its results.

I’ve been accumulating research notebooks about ruliology for more than 30 years now—with textual notes, images of behavior, and code. And it’s a great thing. Because the stability of the Wolfram Language (and its notebook format) means that I can immediately go back to something I did 30 years ago, run the code, and build on it. And when it comes to presenting results, I can do it as a computational essay, created in a notebook—in which the task of exposition is shared between text, pictures and computational language code.

In a traditional technical paper based on the mathematical paradigm, the formal part of the presentation will normally use mathematical notation. But for ruliology (as for “computational X” fields) what one needs instead is computational notation, or rather computational language—which is exactly what the Wolfram Language provides. And in a good piece of ruliology—and ruliology presentation—the notation should be simple, clear and elegant. And because it’s in computational language, it’s not just something people read; it’s also something that can immediately be executed or integrated somewhere else.

What should the future of ruliology be? It’s a huge, wide-open field. In which there are many careers to be made, and immense numbers of papers and theses and books that can be written—that will build up a body of knowledge that advances not just the pure, basic science of the computational universe but also all the science and technology that flows from it.

For more such insights, log into www.international-maths-challenge.com.

*Credit for article given to Stephen Wolfram*


What is the chance of a message in a bottle being found?

Jenny Sturm/Shutterstock

Recently, a cheerful 100-year-old message in a bottle was found on the south-west coast of Australia. In it, a world war one soldier proclaimed to be “as happy as Larry”.

If you’re a betting person, you probably wouldn’t expect great odds of this happening. A bottle cast into the ocean could end up absolutely anywhere.

If it floats to a remote location, there is little chance of somebody stumbling upon it. And if it lands somewhere more favourable where people could potentially find it, there are other issues. The message itself will deteriorate over time as light degrades it. If the bottle fills with water, it will sink and almost certainly never be found.

So, what are the chances of a message in a bottle being found and it being over 100? And what are your chances of finding this bottle?

Despite these many possibilities during a bottle’s lifetime, the probability we are after is a straightforward calculation. Just count up the number of bottles with messages that have been found and are over 100 years old, and divide by the number of messages that have been sent this way (assuming we know how many are sent):

Probability calculation.

Our diagram below shows a hypothetical situation where 20 bottles are sent in total, of which six are found (indicated in gold) and one of these is over 100 years old (indicated by the “100” stamp). So, one in 20 bottles are found and over 100 years old. (Note: This is only a hypothetical calculation, not the real data.)

Hypothetical bottle data. Bottle image from https://www.flaticon.com/free-icons/bottle.

Instead of calculating the probability directly, another way to do it is by breaking the problem into two parts: (A) a bottle with a message is found, and (B) the found bottle is over 100. These two probabilities can be calculated separately and multiplied together to get what we want:

Multiplication rule of probability.

This is known as the “multiplication rule” of probability, and we confirm from our hypothetical numbers that (6/20)×(1/6) = 1/20, as before.

Both approaches to calculating this probability are simple. However, the direct calculation requires knowing the total number of bottles sent out, which is very difficult to know in the real world.

The multiplication rule has the advantage that it breaks the calculation into two parts. We can tackle each separately, then bring the two results together to get the probability we want. This is useful in the real-world situation where we can draw information from different sources.

First, we’ll deal with the probability that a bottle with a message is found, irrespective of its age.

Experts from the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency of Germany suggest a one in ten chance that a message in a bottle will be found. This aligns broadly with various historical “drift bottle” experiments, where oceanographers released large numbers of bottles to understand ocean currents.

For example, studies from the 1960s and ’70s in the North Atlantic Ocean led to recovery rates of 14% from the Gulf of Mexico, 8% from the Caribbean Sea and 7% from the northern Brazilian coast. A more recent and more northerly study (between Canada and Greenland) from the 2000s led to a 5% recovery rate.

We would expect the results to vary naturally from different experiments in different parts of the world. But to keep things simple, we will stick with 1/10 as the probability that a bottle with a message is found.

Now for the second piece of the calculation: of the bottles that are found, what proportion are over 100 years old?

The table below summarises data from news articles collected on Wikipedia about very old bottles with messages that have been found. However, only data on bottles over 25 years old has been collected, presumably because older bottles are more newsworthy.

Data on the age distribution of bottles found, where the asterisk * indicates an estimated number.

So, we needed to estimate the number of 0- to 25-year-old bottles with messages ourselves – here’s how we did this.

The table shows that fewer bottles with messages are found as they get older. Messages in bottles degrade over time, which means the bottles have an increased chance of breaking and sinking, or just getting covered in layers of sediment. Plotting this data in the graph below helped us see the trend in the ages of found bottles more clearly.

Trend in the ages of bottles found.

We drew a line to match this observed trend in the ages of found bottles. This red line in the graph corresponds to the equation:

This equation provides an estimate of how many bottles have been found for any specific age range (where 25 = 0-to-25, 50 = 25-to-50 and so on). We are interested in the the 0- to 25-year-old bottles, so the equation suggests 46 bottles have been found in this range.

Adding up this and all of the numbers in the table gives a total of 106 bottles found, of which 12 are over 100 years old, and 12/106 is about one in ten.

Recapping the above, we have that: (A) one in ten bottles with messages are found, of which (B) one in ten are over 100 years old. Bringing these results together using the multiplication rule, we estimate the chance of a message in a bottle being found and it being over 100 years old to be (1/10)×(1/10) = 1/100.

So, if there are 100,000 bottles with messages floating around the oceans waiting to be found, we’d expect 1,000 of these to be found and be 100 or more years old. Assuming anybody in the world is equally likely to find one of these, with 8 billion people currently, that’s about a one in 8 million chance of you finding one – pretty unlikely.

However, some people are more persistent at message-in-a-bottle hunting than others. Following the paths of ocean currents (known as gyres) could provide clues on where to look.

Specifically, peninsulas or islands intersecting with these gyres could be good spots. For this reason, it has been suggested the Caribbean islands are ideally placed for finding bottles as they lie on the path of the North Atlantic Gyre. Which seems like a great reason to travel to the Carribean!

But let’s also spare a thought for the poor soul stranded on their desert island, who surely won’t appreciate the low odds of their SOS being found.

For more such insights, log into www.international-maths-challenge.com.

*Credit for article given to Kevin Burke & David O’Sullivan*


Finding Square Roots Without Estimating

Typical algorithms for doing square roots by hand require estimation. I have taught a different algorithm that does not rely on estimation but instead uses subtraction of successive odd integers. First, I offer examples that illustrate two situations that may arise. Then I present a third situation (as well as how to deal with the square roots of non-perfect squares).

This approach is based on the fact that the nth perfect square is the sum of the first n odd integers. This fact can be used to subtract successive odd integers from a given number for which one wishes to find the square root. If the number isn’t a perfect square, this method can be extended by adding pairs of zeroes to the original number and continuing the process for each additional decimal place one wishes find.

FIRST RULE

It helps to look at a couple of examples to illustrate two “special cases” that arise with some numbers, requiring one or two additional “rules” or steps.

Using the example of 54,756:

Start by marking pairs of digits from the right-most digit: 5 | 47 | 56

Then subtract 1 from the leftmost digit or pair: 5 – 1 = 4.
Continue with the next odd integer: 4 – 3 = 1.

We can’t subtract 5 from 1, so we count how many odd integers we’ve subtracted thus far (2) and mark that above the 5.

Bring down the next pair of digits and append it to the 1 yielding 147.

To get the next odd integer to subtract, multiply the last odd integer subtracted by 10 and add 11 (this is Rule #1) to the product. Here, we have 10 x 3 + 11 = 41. Proceed as previously, subtracting 41 from 147 = 106.
Subtract the next odd integer, 43 from 106 = 63.
Subtract the next odd integer, 45 from 63 = 18.

Again, we can’t subtract 47 from 18; counting, we have done 3 subtractions and place 3 above the pair 47. Multiply 45 x 10 and add 11 = 461.

Bring down the next pair of digits, 56, and append them to the 18, yielding 1856.

Subtract 461 from 1856 = 1395.
Subtract the next odd integer, 463 from 1395 = 932.
Subtract the next odd integer, 465 from 932 = 467.
Subtract the next odd integer, 467 from 467 = 0.
Stop.

Counting how many subtractions, we see it is 4 and we write 4 above the 56.

Our answer is that 234 is the square root of 54,756. Alternately, instead of keeping a running total of the subtractions and placing the digits above successive pairs of digits from the left, take the last number subtracted, 467, add 1, and divide the result by 2 = 234, same as what we determined the other way.

SECOND RULE

A second example introduces another rule not previously required: find the square root of 4,121,062,016 using the subtraction of successive odd integers.

Begin as above by making pairs of digits from the right-most digit: 4 | 12 | 10 | 62 | 40 | 16

Subtract 1 from 4 = 3.

Subtract 3 from 3 = 0.
Write down 2 for the two subtractions above the 4.
Bring down the next pair of digits, 12.
Multiply 3 x 10 and add 11 = 41.
Note that 41 is too big to subtract from 12.
Write 0 above the 12, since we did 0 subtractions.

Bring down the next pair of digits, 10, and append to the 12 => 1210.

Insert a 0 to the left of the last digit in 41 => 401. (This is Rule #2)
Subtract 401 from 1210 = 809.
Subtract the next odd integer, 403, from 809 = 406.
Subtract the next odd integer, 405 from 406 = 1.

For the three subtractions, write 3 above the 10.

Bring down the next pair of integers, 62 and append to the 1 => 162
Multiply 405 by 10 and add 11 = 4061.
We need to apply Rule #2 again. Write 0 above the 62, bring down the next pair of digits, 40, and append to the 162 => 16240.
Insert 0 to the left of the last digit of 4061 => 40601.

Note that this is still too big to subtract from 16240.
Apply Rule #2 again (and it may have to be applied more than twice in particular cases).
Write 0 above the 40, bring down the 16 and append to the 16240 => 1624016.
Insert a 0 to the left of the last digit of 40601 => 406001.

Subtract 406001 from 1624016 = 1218015.
Subtract the next odd integer , 406003 from 1218015 = 812012.
Subtract the next odd integer, 406005 from 812012 = 406007.
Subtract the next odd integer, 406007 from 406007 = 0.
Write a 4 above the last pair of digits, 16.

The square root of 41210624016 = 203,004.

Again, alternately, the answer = (406007+1) / 2 = 203,004.

THIRD RULE

There is a group of numbers for which the process previously described won’t work. For example, try to use it to find the square root of 100.

Grouping as before: 1 | 00

Subtracting 1 from 1 = 0.

Write 1 above the 1, bring down the next pair of digits, 00, and append to the 0.

Multiply 1 x 10 and add 11 = 21.

Can’t subtract 21 from 0. Hmm. Although we know the answer is 10, to make things work, we can note the following, which is Rule #3:

If you want the square root of a whole number that ends in two or more zeros, write the number as a product of a number and an even power of ten.

So 100 = 1 x 10^2.

We get that the square root of 1 = 1, append one zero for every pair of zeroes in the original number, and Bob’s your uncle. (Or something like that).

For example, to find the square root of 3,610,000, remove two pairs of zeroes from the original number, then apply the original procedure:

Group: 3 | 61.

Subtract 1 from 3 = 2

Can’t subtract 3 from 2, so write 1 above the 3, bring down the next pair of digits and append them to the 2 => 261.

Multiply 1 x 10 and add 11 = 21.

Subtract 21 from 261 = 240.
Subtract 23 from 240 = 217
Subtract 25 from 217 = 192
Subtract 27 from 192 = 165
Subtract 29 from 165 = 136
Subtract 31 from 136 = 105
Subtract 33 from 105 = 72
Subtract 35 from 72 = 37
Subtract 37 from 37 = 0

So write a 9 above the 61. Append two zeroes to the 19, one for each pair removed.
Then the square root of 3,610,000 = 1900.

DEALING WITH NON-PERFECT SQUARES

Finally, this process works for whole numbers that aren’t perfect squares and for decimals. It just won’t terminate in those cases (except arbitrarily). For a decimal, also break the number into pairs of digits to the right of the decimal point.

For example, finding the square root of 3 to 3 decimal places.

Append pairs of zeroes for each decimal place you want in the answer, plus two more to be able to round to the given place.

So write 3 as 3 | 00 | 00 | 00 | 00

Subtract 1 from 3 = 2.

Write 1 above the 3. Bring down a pair of zeroes, append to the 2 => 200.

Multiply 1 x 10 and add 11 = 21.

Subtract 21 from 200 = 179
Subtract 23 from 179 = 156
Subtract 25 from 156 = 131
Subtract 27 from 131 = 104
Subtract 29 from 104 = 75
Subtract 31 from 75 = 44
Subtract 33 from 44 = 11.

Write 7 above the first pair of zeroes.

Bring down the next pair of zeroes and append to the 11 => 1100.

Multiply 33 x 10 and add 11 = 341.

Subtract 341 from 1100 = 759.
Subtract 343 from 759 = 416.
Subtract 345 from 416 = 71.

Write 3 above the second pair of zeroes.

Append the next pair of zeroes to the 71 => 7100.

Multiply 345 x 10 and add 11 = 3461.

Subtract 3461 from 7100 = 3639.
Subtract 3463 from 3639 = 176.

Write 2 above the third pair of zeroes.

Append the last pair of zeroes to the 176 => 17600

Multiply 3463 x 10 and add 11 = 346241.

We could continue, but it suffices to realize that the next digit will be 0 and so our answer is that the square root of 3 is 1.732 rounded to three decimal places.

For more such insights, log into www.international-maths-challenge.com.

*Credit for article given to Michael Goldenberg*


What is a Ruler and Compass Construction?

I’d never heard of this thing until grad school. And even then, I never asked what it was. Over the course of time I eventually figured it out, but never really got an opportunity to do much with it. Nor have I had a chance to teach it.

A teacher interview question from Oleg Gleizer’s book inspired me to think about, and learn, this nifty skill.

So what is it?

Here’s the definition (mostly from Wikipedia):

A ruler-and-compass construction is the construction of lengths, angles, and geometric figures using only a ruler and compass.

This means that you can take one of those “pointer and pencil circle making things” and anything really straight (the side of your new iPhone, the edge of a file folder, etc.) and make pretty much create anything in geometry.

Pretty cool, huh?

I gave it a shot!

I used Oleg’s teacher interview question:

Given a straight line and a point away from it, how would you draw another straight line passing through the point and perpendicular to the original line, using a compass and straightedge as tools?

Can I do it? Of course!

Well… I thought about it and it seemed like I could. So I went out and got a compass, and used a fingernail file as a straight edge. Here’s how I did it:

Here’s the line and the point. Easy peasy.

I made an arc from the point through the line, so I would have two spots on the line (where the circle piece went through):

From those two places, I made two more arcs through the point above and long enough to run into each other below:

I connected the point with the intersection of the arcs at the bottom and VOILA: perpendicular line to the other line!

Join me in the journey!

This is the first in my ruler and compass journey. They’re kind of fun, and I want to do more. So I will house them here, for future reference.

Here are the first 10 on my list.

  1. Line perpendicular to given line through given point not on given line. (this one)
  2. Perpendicular bisector of given segment.
  3. Right angle at given point on given line.
  4. Square with given segment as side.
  5. Equilateral triangle with given segment as side.
  6. Hexagon with given segment as side.
  7. Copy a given angle to a given segment.
  8. Line parallel to given line through point not on given line.
  9. Dividing given segment into N equal parts.
  10. Bisecting a given angle.

Grab a straightedge and compass for each member of your family – let me know you’re on board in the comments.

For more such insights, log into www.international-maths-challenge.com.

*Credit for article given to Bon Crowder*


The mathematical crimes of the Young Sherlock Holmes series

Dan Smith

Warning this article contains spoilers about the new Amazon Prime series Young Sherlock.

I’ve read the whole Sherlock Holmes canon multiple times over. I love how Holmes uses analytical reasoning to unravel problems that look mysterious, but ultimately prove to have simple explanations. So I was excited when I saw Guy Ritchie’s Young Sherlock appear on Amazon Prime. My excitement was quickly tempered when I started watching, though.

A key part of the plot relies on mathematics. Holmes first meets his sidekick Moriarty (yes, he is working together with his future adversary) at the blackboard after a maths lecture at Oxford. Despite some mistakes in the dialogue, the maths on the blackboard is interesting enough. It is finding the solutions to the equation x5 + x4 + x3 + x2 + x + 1 = 0.

In the maths many of us will have learned at school, we are taught that a positive times a positive makes a positive and that a negative times a negative also makes a positive. For example, 3 times 3 equals 9, but -3 times -3 also equals 9. Squaring a number (when you multiply a number by itself) should always give a positive result. The reverse operation – finding the number(s) you multiply together to give a positive number – is called taking the square root. The two square roots of 9 are 3 and -3, since when you square either of these numbers you get the answer 9.

If we want to take the square root of -1, say, then we need to venture into the realm of imaginary numbers. Imaginary numbers are the square roots of negative numbers. Mathematicians defined the imaginary number i to be the square root of -1 (technically -1 has two square roots i and -i). The square roots of other negative numbers are multiples of i. The square roots of -9, for example are 3i and -3i. Some of the solutions from the equation on the blackboard involve imaginary numbers (this will turn out to be an important plot point).

Mathematical blunders

It’s plausible that the equation on the blackboard might appear in an early first year undergraduate tutorial. Something approaching a passable solution is given, but in excruciating detail (the sort of detail you wouldn’t use at school, let alone in a maths degree at Oxford). And there are mistakes in the maths.

Young Sherlock Holmes contemplates the incorrect solutions on the blackboard. Amazon Prime screenshot

Towards the end of the lecture, the professor sets the students homework to find all the solutions to the equation, even though they are already written on the board (although incorrectly). Despite this, the end of the scene sees Sherlock spending some time trying to think of the solutions before Moriarty comes up and shows him two of the five solutions (as if they were the only ones). Moriarty too writes these down incorrectly, but in a different way to the incorrectness already on the board.

As Moriarty writes down the complex solution (complex means the answer contains both real and imaginary numbers) he says “These solutions, they’re not real. They’re imaginary.” which we can allow (although technically he means complex).

What we can’t forgive is Moriarty going on to say, “That means even if you can’t see the target, you can still shoot for it.” Which is nonsense, even as a metaphor. Complex numbers aren’t targets you can’t see, but well-defined, mainstream (even in the 1870s) mathematical quantities and there’s no sense in which you “aim at” a complex solution to an equation.

Death by numbers

In the last episode, Holmes and his team are battling to halt the distribution of a deadly chemical weapon known as the “creeping death”. They find a scrap of paper in a secret room which they say is the “equation for creating the creeping death.”

I was expecting to see some complex chemical reaction formulae sketched on the page, but when it’s held up to the camera, we see instead a mathematical equation: z3 + 4 z2 – 10 z + 12 = 0.

What does this have to do with the chemical process for creating the deadly nerve agent?

Nothing, it turns out. Or at least nothing I can imagine. In fact it’s a device to allow Holmes and Moriarty to hark back to that moment in the lecture theatre when they first met. What follows goes beyond artistic license into the realm of gibberish.

“If we have the positive equation”, they say, “then we can come up with the negative. And thus create a compound to neutralise the threat of creeping death.” Perhaps they meant “positive solution”, because equations themselves aren’t positive or negative. Either way, the idea that this simple mathematical equation or its solutions are the secret formula for making a weapon of mass destruction doesn’t make sense. There’s no context, no sense in which this equation could be the secret recipe for creating the nerve agent.

Moriarty points out that they have a problem. “This equation is not finished.” By this I think he means that the three solutions to the equation are not written out explicitly.

One solution, z = – 6 is given. And it’s correct. The rest of the scrap of paper contains a reformulation of the equation (a factorisation), which shows that the remaining solutions can be found by solving a quadratic equation: z2 – 2 z + 2 = 0.

A quadratic equation is just an equation built around a squared term (in this case z2 ), which has two solutions. The formula for the solutions may be familiar to GCSE students (normally aged 15 to 17 years old). For a general quadratic equation: a z2 + b z + c = 0, the two solutions are given below.

Yet, we are supposed to believe that, despite having supposedly solved a far more complicated equation than this in the first episode, Moriarty can’t find the solution to this much simpler equation. So stumped is Moriarty – the future maths professor – that he spends precious time, as a bomb is about to detonate, searching for a piece of paper with this missing solution. He almost loses his life when he could have just used a GCSE-level formula.

The piece of paper he eventually finds contains an incorrect statement of the quadratic formula alongside some nonsensical text, although the solutions are at least correct: z = 1 + i and z = 1 – i (where i, remember, is the imaginary number).

I appreciate my dissection of the maths is high-grade nerdery. Most people will have watched the series without pausing it like I did to look at the maths and probably won’t have noticed. But, if maths is going to be a pivotal plot point in your blockbuster series, then you’ll probably want to make sure you get it right.

For more such insights, log into www.international-maths-challenge.com.

*Credit for article given to Kit Yates*


Teaching maths in the garden: a guide for parents

Keeping children engaged with maths over the summer doesn’t have to be complicated. Grow their maths skills alongside your very own garden with these tips.

As some children continue to learn from home, maintaining their mathematical skills can be a challenge. Parents and caregivers may feel nervous about teaching maths to their children, and even hold onto some maths anxiety themselves.

It’s okay to take a simple approach to maths teaching using objects and environments at home. Have you considered that gardening can be an easy and effective way to help your child connect with mathematical concepts in a concrete and lasting way?

Here are four ways you can support teaching maths in the garden.

1. Invite your child to help with garden planning

Maths is everywhere! And your garden is no exception. Creating gardening maths activities can be as simple as taking notice of what you’re already doing.

Ready to plan your garden? Start by breaking down the information you need. The planning stage of gardening is full of rich mathematical calculations like:

How much space do we have to plant?

How much soil will we need?

How much will it cost?

How far apart will we need to plant the different varieties of flowers or vegetables?

How many rows do we have space to plant? How many columns?

How much sunlight does this spot get? How much sun will our plants need?

To an expert gardener, these may seem like simple things you think about in passing. But they can easily become mathematical tasks you could get your child to help you with.

2. Ask your child to help you find the answers

You need information to get your garden going, and you have a helper ready to get it for you. Ask your child questions that will help you prepare for planting:

Can they measure the length and width of your garden?

Can they find the area?

If it’s a raised garden bed, can they find the height and the volume?

If they know the volume in cubic metres or centimetres, can they express it in litres?

If a standard bag of soil is 50 l and costs £12, can they tell you how many bags you’ll need to fill the garden bed?

Can they tell you how much the soil will cost overall?

Posing mathematical questions that are rooted in reality gives your child and opportunity to use their knowledge. When your child can see why they’re doing something, they develop a deeper conceptual understanding.

3. Challenge your child to find multiple solutions

If you think your child could go a bit further, ask them to plot out where to plant different varieties in your garden. Say you want to plant lettuce, beetroot and carrots — and they all need to be planted the following distances away from other plants:

Lettuce should be planted at least 30 cm away from other plants

Beetroot should be planted at least 10 cm away from other plants

Carrots should be planted at least 5 cm away from other plants

With available garden space in mind, you can ask guiding questions like:

How many configurations could you have?

Could you plant 5 lettuce, 10 beetroot and 20 carrots?

Or could you plant more lettuce and fewer beetroot and carrots?

 

Ask your child to map it out, and come up with a few different answers. Finding more than one way to solve a problem will boost your child’s reasoning skills, allow them to explore maths for themselves and encourage creativity!

4. Continue learning by encouraging maths journaling

Keeping a garden is a great opportunity for your child to reflect on what they learned in an ongoing maths journal. For example, when your child thinks back on what they did to measure and plan the garden, you could ask:

Why did we need that information?

What did it help us do next?

When planting, they can keep a record of what, where, when and how many seeds were planted. Have them make estimations like:

How many plants do you think will grow?

What do you think the yield will be?

When harvesting, encourage them to refer back to their planting journal and compare.

Can they compare their estimations to the actual yield?

Can they compare the actual yield to the data they recorded when planting?

Can they tell you what percentage of seeds grew into plants?

How could they use their findings in the future?

Reflecting on their learning and answering open questions will help your child master mathematical concepts in depth. Explaining their thinking, getting creative and making connections to what they learned and why, all help to solidify mathematical understanding.

In short, learning maths at home doesn’t need to be complicated. Teaching mathematics can also be a part of teaching your child life lessons and skills, like how to plant a garden.

Learning maths in real-life contexts helps children form a connection with new information, and better understand how to apply it. So they won’t just understand what to do, they’ll understand why they’re doing it.

For more such insights, log into www.international-maths-challenge.com.

*Credit for article given to Lisa Champagne*


Probability underlies much of the modern world – an engineering professor explains how it actually works

Probability can explain why a coin flip has a 50/50 chance of landing heads versus tails, but it also can be used for more powerful applications. Monty Rakusen/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Probability underpins AI, cryptography and statistics. However, as the philosopher Bertrand Russell said, “Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.”

I teach statistics to engineers, so I know that while probability is important, it is counterintuitive.

Probability is a branch of mathematics that describes randomness. When scientists describe randomness, they’re describing chance events – like a coin flip – not strange occurrences, like a person dressed as a zebra. While scientists do not have a way to predict strange occurrences, probability does predict long-run behavior – that is, the trends that emerge from many repeated events.

We may say ‘random’ to describe strange occurrences (person dressed as zebra), but probability describes chance events (a coin flip). Zebras in La Paz, Bolivia by EEJCC, Own Work CC A-SA 4.0; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Zebra_La_Paz.jpg _ , CC BY-SA

Modeling with probability

Since probability is about events, a scientist must choose which events to study. This choice defines the sample space. When flipping a coin, for example, you might define your event as the way it lands.

Coins almost always land on heads or tails. However, it’s possible – if very unlikely – for a coin to land on its side. So to create a sample space, you’d have two choices: heads and tails, or heads, tails and side. For now, ignore the side landings and use heads and tails as our sample space.

Next, you would assign probabilities to the events. Probability describes the rate of occurrence of an event and takes values between 0% and 100%. For example, a fair flip will tend to land 50% heads up and 50% tails up.

To assign probabilities, however, you need to think carefully about the scenario. What if the person flipping the coin is a cheater? There’s a sneaky technique to “wobble” the coin without flipping, controlling the outcome. Even if you can prevent cheating, real coin flips are slightly more probable to land on their starting face – so if you start the flip with the coin heads up, it’s very slightly more likely to land heads up.

In both the cheating and real flip cases, you need an appropriate sample space: starting face and other face. To have a fair flip in the real world, you’d need an additional step where you randomly – with equal probability – choose the starting face, then flip the coin.

The probabilities for different coin-flipping scenarios. Zachary del Rosario, CC BY-SA

These assumptions add up quickly. To have a fair flip, you had to ignore side landings, assume no one is cheating, and assume the starting face is evenly random. Together, these assumptions constitute a model for the coin flip with random outcomes. Probability tells us about the long-run behavior of a random model. In the case of the coin model, probability describes how many coins land on heads out of many flips.

But instead of using a random model, why not just solve the coin toss using physics? Actually, scientists have done just that, and the physics shows that slight changes in the speed of the flip determine whether it comes up heads or tails. This sensitivity makes a coin flip unpredictable, so a random model is a good one.

Frequency vs. probability

Probability differs from frequency, which is the rate of events in a sequence. For example, if you flip a coin eight times and get two heads, that’s a frequency of 25%. Even if the probability of flipping a coin and seeing heads is 50% over the long run, each short sequence of flips will come out different. Four heads and four tails is the most probable outcome from eight flips, but other events can – and will – happen.

Frequency and probability are the same in one special setting: when the number of data points goes to infinity. In this sense, probability tells us about long-run behavior.

Probabilities for all possible outcomes of eight ‘fair’ coin flips. Zachary del Rosario, CC BY-SA

Applications to AI, cryptography and statistics

Probability isn’t just useful for predicting coin flips. It underlies many modern technological systems.

For example, AI systems such as large language models, or LLMs, are based on next-word prediction. Essentially, they compute a probability for the words that follow your prompt. For example, with the prompt “New York” you might get “City” or “State” as the predicted next word, because in the training data those are the words that most frequently follow.

But since probability describes randomness, the outputs of a LLM are random. Just like a sequence of coin flips is not guaranteed to come out the same way every time, if you ask an LLM the same question again, you will tend to get a different response. Effectively, each next word is treated like a new coin flip.

Randomness is also key to cryptography: the science of securing information. Cryptographic communication uses a shared secret, such as a password, to secure information. However, surprising randomness isn’t good enough for security, which is why picking a surprising word is a bad choice of password. A shared secret is only secure if it’s hard to guess. Even if a word is surprising, real words are easier to guess than flipping a “coin” for each letter.

You can make a much stronger password by using probability to choose characters at random on your keyboard – or better yet, use a password manager.

Finally, randomness is key in statistics. Statisticians are responsible for designing and analyzing studies to make use of limited data. This practice is especially important when studying medical treatments, because every data point represents a person’s life.

The gold standard is a randomized controlled trial. Participants are assigned to receive the new treatment or the current standard of care based on a fair coin flip. It may seem strange to do this assignment randomly – using coin flips to make decisions about lives. However, the unpredictability serves an important role, as it ensures that nothing about the person affects their chance to get the treatment: not age, gender, race, income or any other factor. The unpredictability helps scientists ensure that only the treatment causes the observed result and not any other factor.

So what does probability mean? Like any kind of math, it’s only a model, meaning it can’t perfectly describe the world. In the examples discussed, probability is useful for describing long-term behaviors and using unpredictability to solve practical problems.

For more such insights, log into www.international-maths-challenge.com.

*Credit for article given to Zachary del Rosario*